A transport-oriented 4-steps forecast model

Tetraplan was involved in the development of latest version of the TRANS-TOOLS model. The TRANS-TOOLS model is the most recent state-of-the-practice transport-oriented 4-steps forecast model available at EU level that includes specific socioeconomic modules based on complementary modelling paradigms.

TRANS-TOOLS aims to produce an European transport network model covering both passenger and freight, as well as intermodal transport, which overcomes the shortcomings of current European transport network models and provide the EU Commission with an in house updated instrument of simulation

The model was created as an answer to the need of policy makers for a generic traffic and transport analysis tool. It covers a network perspective and the interrelationships between passenger and freight models (e.g. modal split, logistics) with economic (e.g. trade) and environment models.

The TRANS-TOOLS model is capable of handling passenger and trade flows within the EU 27 area including neighbouring countries as Russia and Belarus. The zone system is based on 1441 zones with links to external zones. Four main transport modes are included; road (passenger and freight), rail (passenger and freight), air and waterways (national and international). The model provides forecasts for all modes including intermodal transport chains both for passenger and freight flow. It is a large-scale European transport model, which focuses on long-distance travel and local travel is only included to complete the picture. It can therefore not be applied to analyse projects which rely mainly on locally generated consumer surpluses.

TRANS-TOOLS produces results which can be applied in analysis of different types of transport policies, including variables like:

  • Transport performance (passenger-km, tonne-km, vehicle-km, etc.) at EU, national and NUTS II level, on annual basis or more detailed
  • Modal split (share of demand using road modes, rail, air, etc.) both with reference to passengers and tonnes and to passenger-km and tonne-km, thus also average distance of transport can be assessed
  • Load on corridors (passengers and freight vehicles) and, therefore, levels of congestion on road infrastructure (TEN-T and main national links), and also, annual averages, and if available, daily peaks

The TRANS-TOOLS model was applied and improved in the TEN Connect project. The model was also applied in the TRANSvisions study and in the Baltic Transport Outlook study.